Sunday, January 13, 2008

2007 Golden Globe Predictions

I'm hoping for some surprises tonight, but if the precursers are any indication then the winners have been preordained for weeks. Anyway here are my predictions:

BEST MOTION PICTURE - DRAMA
  • American Gangster
  • Atonement
  • Eastern Promises
  • The Great Debaters
  • Michael Clayton
  • No Country For Old Men
  • There Will Be Blood
Prediction: No Country for Old Men
Preference: There Will Be Blood

Atonement has the most nominations, but No Country has all the heat. Seeing the HFPA go for the conventional choice (from a historic standpoint) wouldn't surprise me, but No Country is the movie of the moment, and will probably triumph here.


BEST ACTRESS - DRAMA
  • Cate Blanchett – Elizabeth: The Golden Age
  • Julie Christie – Away From Her
  • Jodie Foster – The Brave One
  • Angelina Jolie – A Mighty Heart
  • Keira Knightley – Atonement
Prediction - Julie Christie, Away from Her
Preference - Julie Christie, Away from Her

This one's a no brainer. Or at least it seems to be. Could the HFPA surprise us all and go with youth over age and honor Keira Knightley? Stranger things have happened...and they obviously love Atonement. And stars...always the stars.


BEST ACTOR - DRAMA
  • George Clooney – Michael Clayton
  • Daniel Day-Lewis – There Will Be Blood
  • James McAvoy – Atonement
  • Viggo Mortensen – Eastern Promises
  • Denzel Washington – American Gangster
Prediction - Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood
Preference - Daniel Day-Lewis, There Will Be Blood

Day-Lewis seems like a slam-dunk, but the Globes are a royal bunch of star-fuckers, so George Clooney winning for Michael Clayton would not be a shocker.


BEST MOTION PICTURE - COMEDY OR MUSICAL
  • Across The Universe
  • Charlie Wilson's War
  • Hairspray
  • Juno
  • Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
Prediction - Juno
Preference - Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street

For reasons I will probably never understand, people LOVE Juno, which will probably carry it to a win here over the far more deserving Sweeney Todd. Likability usually trumps cinematic brilliance. Although, musicals have a history of winning here, so don't count it - or the more lighthearted Hairspray (which did very well for itself at the Critics Choice Awards) - out of the race.


BEST ACTRESS - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
  • Amy Adams – Enchanted
  • Nikki Blonsky – Hairspray
  • Helena Bonham Carter – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
  • Marion Cotillard – La Vie En Rose
  • Ellen Page – Juno
Prediction - Ellen Page, Juno
Preference - Marion Cotillard, La Vie En Rose

Again, likability trumps brilliance. Cotillard's transcendent performance has had a woefully small showing in the precurser awards, and Juno is the movie of the moment right now, so I'm calling Page over Cotillard in a squeaker. Although, Cotillard's film is neither a musical, or a comedy. She belongs in the drama category, which may help her defeat the more lighthearted performances here.


BEST ACTOR - MUSICAL OR COMEDY
  • Johnny Depp – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
  • Ryan Gosling – Lars and the Real Girl
  • Tom Hanks – Charlie Wilson's War
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Savages
  • John C. Reilly – Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
Prediction - Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd
Preference
- Johnny Depp, Sweeney Todd

The HFPA LOVES Johnny Depp (they even nominated him last year for Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man's Chest), so look for him to triumph here.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
  • Cate Blanchett – I'm Not There
  • Julia Roberts – Charlie Wilson's War
  • Saoirse Ronan – Atonement
  • Amy Ryan – Gone Baby Gone
  • Tilda Swinton – Michael Clayton
Prediction - Amy Ryan, Gone Baby Gone
Preference - Cate Blanchett, I'm Not There

Amy Ryan has all the heat, but Blanchett has star power, which may trump the Ryan juggernaut here. My guess is, though, that the HFPA will go with the crowd and honor Ryan in a percieved road to an Oscar coronation. The HFPA has been a poor precurser recently...and I have a feeling they will want to try to rectify that.


BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
  • Casey Affleck – The Assassination Of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford
  • Javier Bardem – No Country For Old Men
  • Philip Seymour Hoffman – Charlie Wilson's War
  • John Travolta – Hairspray
  • Tom Wilkinson – Michael Clayton
Prediction - Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men
Preference -
Javier Bardem, No Country for Old Men

Another no-brainer in a night full of them. With the incomparable Hal Holbrook inexplicably absent from this race (John Travolta, really?), I have no problem supporting Bardem. Although it would be nice to see Hoffman get some recognition for a year's worth of extraordinary work.


BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
  • Bee Movie
  • Ratatouille
  • The Simpsons Movie
Prediction - Ratatouille
Preference - Ratatouille

Duh.


BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
  • 4 Months, 3 Weeks And 2 Days (Romania)
  • The Diving Bell And The Butterfly (France, United States)
  • The Kite Runner (United States)
  • Lust, Caution (Taiwan)
  • Persepolis (France)
Prediction - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly
Preference - The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Romania's Palme D'Or winning 4 Months, 3 Weeks, and 2 Days could be a potential spoiler, but Diving Bell is well liked and obviously has support, since it is also nominated for Best Director, so look for it to triumph here.


BEST DIRECTOR
  • Tim Burton – Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street
  • Ethan Coen, Joel Coen – No Country For Old Men
  • Julian Schnabel – The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
  • Ridley Scott – American Gangster
  • Joe Wright – Atonement
Prediction - Ethan Coen, Joel Coen, No Country for Old Men
Preference - Julian Schnabel, The Diving Bell and the Butterfly

Again, the Coens have all the heat, but for me, Schnabel's achievement was the most brilliant and astonishing of these 5 nominees. He took the story of a paralyzed man who could only communicate with his left eyelid (through which most of the movie is seen), and turns it into one of the year's most expressive and original films.


BEST SCREENPLAY
  • Atonement
    Written by Christopher Hampton
  • Charlie Wilson's War
    Written by Aaron Sorkin
  • The Diving Bell And The Butterfly
    Written by Ronald Harwood
  • Juno
    Written by Diablo Cody
  • No Country For Old Men
    Written by Ethan Coen, Joel Coen
Prediction - Juno
Preference - No Country for Old Men

Juno, Juno, Juno. Gag. Although No Country could rain on Diablo Cody's parade (please God!) if they really REALLY like it. But Cody, fresh off her Critics Choice win has the real heat in this race.


BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
  • Grace Is Gone
    Composed by Clint Eastwood
  • The Kite Runner
    Composed by Alberto Iglesias
  • Atonement
    Composed by Dario Marianelli
  • Eastern Promises
    Composed by Howard Shore
  • Into The Wild
    Composed by Michael Brook, Kaki King and Eddie Vedder
Prediction - Atonement
Preference - Atonement

Without Jonny Greenwood's genius There Will Be Blood score in the running, this award is Marianelli's to lose. I mean, they have to give Atonement something, right? Although, the HFPA might not be able to pass up the opportunity to award Clint Eastwood, who could prove to be a spoiler here.


BEST ORIGINAL SONG
  • "Despedida" – Love In The Time Of Cholera
    Music By: Shakira and Antonio Pinto
    Lyrics By: Shakira
  • "Grace Is Gone" – Grace Is Gone
    Music By: Clint Eastwood
    Lyrics By: Carole Bayer Sager
  • "Guaranteed" – Into The Wild
    Music & Lyrics By: Eddie Vedder
  • "That's How You Know" – Enchanted
    Music By: Alan Menken
    Lyrics By: Stephen Schwartz
  • "Walk Hard" – Walk Hard: The Dewey Cox Story
    Music & Lyrics By: Marshall Crenshaw, John C. Reilly, Judd Apatow and Jake Kasdan
Prediction - "Guaranteed," Into the Wild
Preference - "That's How You Know," Enchanted

At last, an award for Into the Wild. Too bad it's for the wrong song, damn it. I'll be glad to see Wild win, but Enchanted's glorious production number is the real standout here. Just one question - where the hell is "Falling Slowly" from Once? Shame on you HFPA!


The Golden Globe newscast will be aired tonight on NBC and many other networks at 9:00 p.m. Eastern time.

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